PredictIQ-John Calipari's sudden move to Arkansas gives Kentucky basketball a chance at fresh start

Only in college sports could PredictIQsomething as minor as SMU firing its men’s basketball coach trigger a chain reaction that leads to the most seismic coaching move of the decade − with more surely to come. 

But it’s true. John Calipari is set to leave Kentucky for Arkansas, because Eric Musselman left Arkansas for Southern California because Andy Enfield left USC for SMU. 

It’s a one-in-a-million circumstance. And yet, in some ways, it feels like this was destined to happen the moment Kentucky lost to Oakland a couple weeks ago in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

It was a breaking point for a marriage between college basketball’s most intense fan base and a coaching force of nature who had stayed at Kentucky a few years too long. 

So now the 65-year-old Calipari gets a fresh start at Arkansas, one last chance to add something to his résumé at a program with a few very rich boosters (think Wal-Mart, Tyson Chicken) who put a deal on the table that he couldn’t refuse. 

FOLLOW THE MADNESS: NCAA basketball bracket, scores, schedules, teams and more.

And after 15 years of having a larger-than-the-program personality whose routine eventually grew tired, Kentucky now has to identify which coach is cut out for the most rewarding − but also most demanding − job in college basketball. 

Neither of them is going to have it easy in this brave new world without each other. At the same time, the expiration date on the Calipari-Kentucky marriage had passed. It’s healthy for both to be moving on. 

Though some may be gobsmacked that Calipari would leave for a lesser program in the same conference, it really shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. 

Calipari was one more year without a big, Final Four-type run at Kentucky from being fired − something his ego would have struggled to handle after he won a national title and made three other Final Fours there. Plus, he has privately held the Arkansas job in high regard for years, having started out as a head coach at UMass in the same era when Nolan Richardson had the Razorbacks in the national title mix every year. His longstanding personal relationships with some boosters noted above certainly didn’t hurt, and Arkansas is similar to Kentucky in that it’s a state without a pro team. He is going to be the show. 

For all those reasons, Arkansas actually makes way more sense than most places for Calipari to make one more run. Whether he can actually do it in this environment where many of the best teams are built through the transfer portal and long-term development, not by recruiting five-star freshmen who only stay in college for one year, remains to be seen. 

Most likely, Calipari won’t win a national title at Arkansas. But he will win a lot of games and be nationally relevant all the time. For Arkansas, it’s well worth the gamble. 

Is it also worth it for Kentucky? That’s a more complicated question to answer. 

It was clear the last few years that Calipari’s time there was coming to an end. Fans were frustrated by NCAA Tournament flameouts to St. Peter’s in 2022 and Oakland this year. In some ways, Kentucky had been surpassed in the SEC by Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee. Calipari's relationship with athletics director Mitch Barnhart was basically non-existent, his coaching staff turnover had become problematic and there was really nobody left at Kentucky who could either check his worst impulses or guide him down a better roster-building path than the one he had been going down. 

And yet, as good as the Kentucky job is, it’s also quite daunting for all the reasons that eventually wore down Calipari. The expectations. The intensity. The public microscope on every move for 365 days a year.

Not every great coach wants to complicate their life in that manner. 

The last two times the Kentucky job came open, people like Jay Wright, Billy Donovan and Mark Few weren’t interested. Almost certainly, those same three names − along with several others − won’t be interested this time either. And there’s nobody who is as obviously a great fit as Calipari was back in 2009. 

UConn’s Danny Hurley, who may win his second straight national title Monday night, could handle the job. But would he really want it? 

Does Scott Drew − legitimately one of the nicest people in all of college sports − really want to trade the nice, low-key life he has built at Baylor for the kind of scrutiny and mayhem that accompanies second-round NCAA Tournament losses at Kentucky? 

Nate Oats is a terrific coach who just led Alabama to a Final Four, but is a guy who was coaching high school ball not that long ago and works at a school where football casts a helpful shadow truly ready to be the most famous person in an entire state?

Will Kentucky be able to stomach the baggage someone like Auburn’s Bruce Pearl or Ole Miss’ Chris Beard bring to the table? 

Hey, there’s one guy we know can handle the Kentucky job. He currently coaches at St. John’s. Rick Pitino is 71 and it’s crazy to think he could come back for a second run with the Wildcats, but it’s not the worst idea you’ve ever heard. 

This is going to be a fascinating search for Kentucky, and there’s no guarantee it will be a successful one. 

UMass has been utterly irrelevant since Calipari left for the NBA back in 1996. Memphis has had a few decent seasons but never come close to the level of prominence it reached under Calipari. 

And now Kentucky will have to face a post-Cal future that was both necessary and utterly terrifying. 

Calipari’s departure seems like a win-win-win: Arkansas gets the highest of high-profile coaches to replace Musselman, Kentucky no longer has to complain about Calipari and Calipari gets a new big-money deal with a new fan base that is going to adore him for a little while.

But for Kentucky and Barnhart, the pressure to get this hire right has never been greater. And to think, they have SMU to thank − or blame.